Nov 15, 2018


Saloon A



In this speech, we’ll talk about the claims of the politicians and the presidents of the Central Bank on the interest rate and the inflation rate, and the analyses conducted to reveal the validity of these claims. The analyses were made for the period starting from 2003 to 2018, covering the Program for Transition to Strong Economy. In addition, the analysis was conducted for 2 sub-periods in accordance with the breakdown dates in the series, and the relations between the interest rate and the inflation rate were examined in three periods. In addition to the analysis of the aforementioned variables, the relations between the exchange rate and the inflation rate were analysed in 3 periods, too. Because of the nonlinear structure of the variables, the analyses were made by nonlinear approaches. As a result of the analyses, it was found that the periods in which both claims were valid and the periods when only one claim was valid. The findings suggest that policy makers should pay attention to the relationship between these economic variables.

  • Işıl Akgül
    Işıl Akgül


    Marmara University


    Econometrics / Professor Research Interests: Time Series Econometrics, Financial Econometrics, Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics, Applied Econometrics.

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